Dan Gardner author photo

Dan Gardner

Born: April 08, 1968 – Swastika, Ontario, Canada

Dan Gardner is a Canadian journalist and author who writes about risk, forecasting, decision-making, and politics. He is best known for Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, Future Babble, and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. His work helped popularize evidence-based thinking about uncertainty and judgment for broad audiences.

Biography & Author's Journey

Dan Gardner is a Canadian nonfiction writer whose career joins history, law, public policy, and journalism. He studied history at York University and earned a law degree from Osgoode Hall Law School, then worked as a policy adviser in Ontario government before turning to journalism. In 1997 he joined the Ottawa Citizen, where he became a national affairs columnist and investigative feature writer. Those years were foundational: they gave him a reporter’s suspicion of dogma, a feel for how institutions actually behave, and a lasting interest in the distance between evidence, fear, and public rhetoric. ((https://policyoptions.irpp.org/authors/dan-gardner/?utm_source=openai))

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Quotes

quote
People often say that projects “go wrong.” That’s seldom true. They don’t go wrong so much as they start wrong
-The Ottawa LRT Debacle
quote
This creates a predictable dynamic: From complacency and inaction, we swing to panic and action, then slowly forget and return to complacency
-Preparing for the Next Big One
quote
Folly is routine. It is the wisdom of Wimbledon that is the aberration
-Why Were We Not Prepared?
quote
Most people don’t panic and riot. Most become Matt Damon
-The Disaster Myth
quote
Monsters are scary. Not knowing if there is a monster is scarier
-COVID-19 And The Psychology Of Uncertainty
quote
Climate change is distant in every dimension
-Why Don't We Care More About Climate Change?
quote
To understand information such as that, “intuitive toxicology” is worse than useless
-Intuitive toxicology doesn't work
quote
But believing is not knowing. Neither is hoping
-Believing Is Not Knowing

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Community Voices

"The Guardian said Dan Gardner's Risk is "an invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly."

The Guardian

"Financial Times called Dan Gardner's Future Babble "hugely enjoyable."

Financial Times

"The Economist said Dan Gardner's Superforecasting is "a gift to anyone" thinking about the future"

The Economist

"Quill & Quire called Dan Gardner's Future Babble "a fascinating look at the often dodgy business of expert predictions."

Quill & Quire

"Steven Pinker called Dan Gardner's Future Babble "genuinely arresting" and "required reading."

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"The New York Times Book Review said Dan Gardner "leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack."

The New York Times Book Review

"Daniel Kahneman said Dan Gardner's Superforecasting is "a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world."

Daniel Kahneman

"Dylan Evans said Dan Gardner's Future Babble should be "required reading for America's intelligence agencies."

Dylan Evans

"Publishers Weekly said Dan Gardner's style "brings a breath of fresh air and common sense" to an emotional topic"

Publishers Weekly

"The Independent called Dan Gardner's Superforecasting "a terrific piece of work" and "highly recommended."

The Independent

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